ASW skills on the Decline?

[Ivan Rapkinov]

I was chatting to a mate in the Defence Dept here mainly about the AAW, and he raised some interesting points re: ASW.

In the last 3 years every UDT, ASW or Sub warfare conference that this mate attended has emphasised (with some distinctive clarity thats not avail in the public domain) the emerging threat of capable conventionals and the decline of ASW skillsets at both the operator and platform level.

In the Pac region alone the estimates are that there are close to 270 subs transiting or cohabiting in the Pac. Less than a 1/3rd are considered "friendly"

The USN has made it pretty damn clear that they need to redress the ASW holes - and fast. It doesn't take too much to see that the halcyon capability enjoyed in the past has become victim to other more pressing platform pressures - and that has to change out of necessity.

Bear in mind that the only country not jumping over hoops to have Tsunami sensors in place is China - and one doesn't have to wonder too hard when you look at the bulk of the emerging reports that showed that the initial data capture of the event was coming out of military assets. The last thing that China wants is more arrays in that region, she was busted sniffing out the Andomans naval facility when the tsunami struck.

That whole region could become a nightmare if subs start laying mines everywhere - the capacity to find them and kill them is not a single platform solution - it's a symbiotic one (hence why ForceNET is so attractive for the USN)

comments? criticisms?

[JClark_1]

Kinda silly for the PRC to take this stand regarding tsunamis sensors. It doesn't record a damn thing except for the passage of the wave. I guess they think it's part of a SOSUS array. Oh well, maybe after they lose a couple of naval bases and a smattering of expensive grey boats they might see the issue in a different light.

As for diminishing ASW, I agree. And this is at the heart of the other thread about active sonar damage to cetaceans. The USN knows it's behind the curve on littoral ASW, and is struggling to catch up. It's got to be done, or else the whole concept of "From the Sea" is going to go up in smoke. Personally, I think the LCS program is stupid, and will only get a bunch of sailors killed in the long run. My idea of controlling the litorals involves lots of aircraft with "A" or "B" in the type name, and swift strikes and/or landings on unopposed beaches if necessary. Oh, don't forget the depth charges...lots of them :cheeky:

Byron

[Herman Hum]

In the last 3 years every UDT, ASW or Sub warfare conference that this mate attended has emphasised (with some distinctive clarity thats not avail in the public domain) the emerging threat of capable conventionals and the decline of ASW skillsets at both the operator and platform level.

In the Pac region alone the estimates are that there are close to 270 subs transiting or cohabiting in the Pac. Less than a 1/3rd are considered "friendly"

The USN has made it pretty damn clear that they need to redress the ASW holes - and fast. It doesn't take too much to see that the halcyon capability enjoyed in the past has become victim to other more pressing platform pressures - and that has to change out of necessity.I think that the USN also recognizes that they have fallen behind in the ASW area. It looks like they are really pushing to catch up, though. Take for example their lease the Swedish SSK for exercise purposes and their exercises with S. American navies in the use of diesels subs. Although they may have slipped a bit, they do appear to acknowledge the threat quite well. This situation might be similar to their creation of the "Top Gun" fighter school during the Vietnam era. The Air-to-Air threat was recognized and they created a solution. ASW skills, like most knowledge, are perishable, too, unless they have a mechanism for retaining the institutional knowledge.

[On a side note, some lessons are also perishable. The Miramar fighter school was recently closed, IIRC.]

[Pirimeister]

This article at Subsim.com seems to substanciate what Ivan was saying (it's a fairly large article, so I'll just leave the link)

http://www.military.com/NewContent/0,13190,NI_China_0303,00.html

The combination of litoral waters + diesel subs + narrow passageways seems like a very tough nut to crack, indeed. How long would you supose it will take for the USN to adjust its ASW capabilities to this combination?

And, does the Seawolf class have the technological means to defeat this threat or will it require something more to become more effective?

[Ivan Rapkinov]

more on the PLAN...

Using the PLAN as an example. They're building mules as part of an indigenous development process. That demonstrates intent, that demonstrates a willingness to spend money that could be wasted whilst they bump their learning curve. Their Songs are equiped with French ASW and Ewarfare suites, they've been extending their patrols way outside of their normal operations, and have now started to undertale circumnavigation exercises. That indicates a quantum leap in both platform capability, and an increase in technical and trg competency. The PLAN Kilos are generally acknowledged as being the best of breed, and they're building them with low cavitation props. India, as Russias longest serving ally is still getting them with standard 5 bladed high cavitators. Who would you rather hack in an underwater game of "tag"?

NorK has been shifting Romeos as far as Angola, last year they managed to get 2 subs within striking distance of a CVN between the Carrier and a shoreline - thats no mean feat. Bear in mind that the Soviets fielded N tipped torps on their Romeos as far back as 1962. So if Nork manages to miniaturise the weapon, then they're at the point where they warrant having all their subs tagged on a just in case scenario.

As another example of potential headaches, 4 of the 7 current contenders for ownership of the Spratlys own subs, granted they are not all bluewater proficient, but can you imagine them all standing back and not getting a free underwater shot at the Chinese if they make a claim and start to move on it?

The Singaporeans are our allies, but they're now using the same technology that we have on the Collins for sig reduction (we sold it to them) - anotherwords, those subs might lack legs, but they're just as damn quiet. Needless to say, the Malays and the Indons haven't been too happy about being technologically upstaged

[JClark_1]

Here's one that I know more than a few of you won't agree with: You NEVER hear of a success against an undersea opponent, only the USN's failures. A Romeo get anywhere near a CVN, without being tagged? No way, Jose, it'd be like not hearing a garbage truck on a quiet street at night. If I were sizing up an opponent, I'd surely want him to underestimate me, and not the other way around. When I pull my gun out to shoot him in the face, I want to see him with a look of suprise on his face, and a knife in his hand.

The PLAN at sea is NOT about finally getting platforms that will carry them that far...it is about the human learning curve, and how short can we make it? These actions by the PLAN were discussed in the "Year in Review" issue of "Proceedings" two years ago (and no, it's not magic that I read "Proceedings", it's just my committment to spend $38 a year).

And lastly, if I'm not mistaken, Mirimar was closed, as was the Naval Fighter Weapons School. Having said that, the course was rolled into what the Navy calls, "Strike U" at Fallon NAS, Nevada, where they get to go up against each other, and the Air Farce, er Force :p . It's a bit more cost efficient, and I don't think the Navy will forget the hard lessons learned over North Vietnam. They just needed to spend our tax dollars a little more wisely. Not to mention, it's not that far from Vegas :cheeky:

[danrh]

More to come as well. Malaysians are acquiring some old dutch boats in the interim but have expressed an interest in acquiring Scorpene SSK's. These are AIP capable and will probably be the best diesel once they make service (Chilean's have 1-2 in trials now).


I hadn't heard anything about Dutch subs? As Ivan has posted eslewhere the Malaysian Scorpene plans have advanced to crew type training.

http://www.war-forums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26715

Daniel